Market Outlook #185 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog

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Market Outlook #185 (thirty first July 2022)

Hi there, and welcome to the 185th instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s submit, I might be masking Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, Dogecoin, Polkadot, Uniswap, Elrond and Sushiswap.

As ever, if in case you have any requests for subsequent Monday’s Outlook, do let me know.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

Day by day:

btcusddaily

Worth: $23,800

Market Cap: $454.805bn

Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, we will see that value is closing the week beneath final week’s excessive at $24,306, regardless of wicking above it into $24,666. That being stated, we noticed a very good push off of prior resistance turned help at $21,800 earlier within the week and the pair is about to shut its first week above the 200wMA prior to now six weeks. From right here, I feel so long as the 200wMA at $22,800 now acts as help, however extra broadly we maintain above $21,790, I feel we’re prone to push increased into that $25,375 degree to retest it as untested prior help turned resistance. If subsequent week sees us take out this week’s excessive into that ~$25k space after which break down and shut again beneath the 200wMA, it begins to look weak to me and I might count on the highest for the rally to be in. For now, we’re nonetheless in a bear market and rallies ought to be met with warning. If, nonetheless, we will climb above that degree and maintain above it, I feel a retest of prior vary help at ~$29k is on the playing cards.

Dropping into the every day, we proceed to print an uptrend in momentum however value is beginning to sign exhaustion, with the SFP of the $24306 degree and subsequent retest from beneath as reclaimed resistance. Maintain beneath that degree early this week and I feel we unload to retest the $21.8k help degree, and I might be seeking to play that vary brief if I can get a setup tomorrow or on Tuesday. This may be invalidated by a every day shut above $24,300, which might entice the SFP shorts and I might count on continuation increased from there. No short-term expectation of drastically decrease costs till we shut again beneath $21,800.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ethusdweekly

Day by day:

ethusddaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ethbtcweekly

Day by day:

ethbtcdaily

Worth: $1722 (0.07237 BTC)

Market Cap: $209.722bn

Ideas: Taking a look at ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we will see that value has lastly retested the most important breakdown degree round $1728 and about to shut the weekly proper round that degree, struggling on this primary try to carry above it. If this can be a bear market rally and the long-term development continues to level decrease, we should always actually see a response from right here subsequent week and see the pair flip decrease. If we do break decrease from right here, I’m trying on the prior cycle highs at $1415 as a primary goal, the place if that fails to carry as help the pair is cooked and prone to make one other bigger leg decrease again in the direction of that $800 space, the place there may be loads of confluence for help. If a higher-low can kind above $1415, we having the makings of a backside and I might then be in search of indicators on the decrease timeframes of a reversion to bullish market construction from there to search for longs again into $1700 and better. If we don’t flip decrease this week, the subsequent resistance degree is at $2040, with trendline resistance and prior help above that round $2310-2425.

Turning to ETH/BTC, we’re about to shut marginally above trendline resistance from the 2021 highs, however quantity has been declining on each push increased for the previous a number of weeks, which isn’t what you wish to see as a bull. If we drop into the every day, there may be additionally a point of divergence on the every day RSI as value struggles round reclaimed resistance at 0.072 however holds above the 200dMA and 360dMA. Break again beneath 0.069 from right here and I feel this can be a fake-out and we’re prone to have topped out for this rally, with a return to 0.0594 to retest that degree as help seemingly. If, nonetheless, we will consolidate above that degree, I feel we proceed to squeeze increased and take out resistance at 0.076.


BNB:

BNB/USD

Weekly:

bnbusdweekly

Day by day:

bnbusddaily

BNB/BTC

Weekly:

bnbbtcweekly

Day by day:

bnbbtcdaily

Worth: $289.19 (0.01215 BTC)

Market Cap: $46.663bn

Ideas: Starting with BNB/USD, we will see from the weekly that value has rallied off help at $210 and has now reclaimed help at $254, however weekly construction continues to be bearish, momentum indicators haven’t shifted as of but and value continues to be beneath key trendline resistance and prior help at $317. If that $317 degree holds agency as resistance and value begins to interrupt down from a trendline retest, that’s one thing I might be desirous about shorting again in the direction of $210. Till we get a weekly shut above that confluence of resistance, this simply seems like a brief squeeze to me. Dropping into the every day, we even have confluence of the 200dMA round that trendline, so I might count on to see a powerful response from there.

Turning to BNB/BTC, we will see that the pair – towards all odds actually – has made a brand new all-time excessive this week above 0.0124 however is struggling to carry above it and is closing the week again beneath that degree, round final week’s open. If subsequent week sees the pair break increased as soon as once more and shut firmly above the extent, you don’t want me to inform you that the pair is in value discovery, and we might search for the subsequent degree of resistance on the 1.618 extension at 0.016. Till then, that is trying like a SFP of an all-time excessive because the Greenback pair comes into resistance, so if we break decrease subsequent week and shut beneath 0.0112, I’m returning to a brief bias for BNB.


Dogecoin:

DOGE/USD

Weekly:

dogeusdweekly

Day by day:

dogeusddaily

DOGE/BTC

Weekly:

dogebtcweekly

Day by day:

dogebtcdaily

Worth: $0.07 (297 satoshis)

Market Cap: $9.36bn

Ideas: Wanting firstly at DOGE/USD, on the weekly we will see that value is hovering between the 360wMA as help and the 200wMA as resistance at current, with weekly RSI at all-time lows however no shift in momentum current of but and weekly market construction nonetheless bearish. That being stated, that is exactly the type of vary I might wish to see DOGE start to flatten out and consolidate inside for a chronic interval, and if we do see consolidation over the approaching weeks between $0.04 and $0.08, that’s prone to be a variety I wish to begin being a purchaser inside. Invalidation could be very clear, as a weekly shut beneath the 360wMA opens up one other 50% of attainable draw back, with the subsequent main help down at $0.02. Wanting briefly on the every day, we might begin to flip extra bullish on the pair above each the 200dMA and trendline resistance.

Turning to DOGE/BTC, we will see that value squeezed increased off the 230 satoshi degree and rallied into prior help turned resistance at 368, which continues to carry the pair. That stated, we do seem to have reclaimed the prior cycle highs at 205 satoshis as help, however provided that we will now kind a higher-low round this degree – if as an alternative we break again beneath the extent, I might count on the entire rally to be retraced and value to make its manner in the direction of the 200wMA at 187 satoshis, which traces up with prior resistance and could be an space of curiosity for longs. Wanting on the every day, a break and shut above prior help turned resistance at 368 could be the primary signal of a serious shift in momentum.


Polkadot:

DOT/USD

Weekly:

dotusdweekly

Day by day:

dotusddaily

DOT/BTC

Weekly:

dotbtcweekly

Day by day:

dotbtcdaily

Worth: $9.07 (38,120 satoshis)

Market Cap: $8.957bn

Ideas: If we glance firstly at DOT/USD, we will see the pair bouncing off resistance turned help at $6.86, now coming into and above prior help at $8.57, which might be a key space to reclaim. Maintain above that degree and we begin to look extra bullish following the consolidation above help and I might count on to see an additional squeeze into the $11 space. Finally although, there isn’t a lot by the way in which of weekly construction to pin something on, as we have to shut above that $11 space earlier than a weekly construction shift even happens. Dropping into the every day for extra readability, we will see bullish divergence enjoying out with the latest rally, and I might now be in search of one in every of two issues: rejection early within the week to result in a breakdown again beneath $8.57 and retest as resistance, resulting in cheaper price and a return to the help base; or and sustained transfer above that degree and the $11 degree, the place I might then look to play the vary again into the 200dMA at $14-15. I don’t wish to be a purchaser round right here as a result of we’re coming proper into that cluster of prior help turned resistance.

Turning to DOT/BTC, we will see that value has made a higher-low at 31.7k satoshis above the double backside at 27k satoshis, so it’s trying seemingly on the momentum that no less than the BTC pair has bottomed. If nonetheless we reject as soon as once more on the first resistance degree at 40.5k, thus asserting bearish construction, I feel we take out this higher-low and transfer again into 27k satoshis for a retest, the place consolidation above that degree would actually begin to cement a backside for the pair. If we do maintain above 31.7k satoshi and might shut again above 40.5k, weekly construction turns bullish and it begins to change into purchase the dip mode, regardless of how the broader market seems. Wanting on the every day, once more if we’re to have a response that is prone to be the spot, given the 200dMA looming overhead – large week forward certainly.


Uniswap:

UNI/USD

Weekly:

uniusdweekly

Day by day:

uniusddaily

UNI/BTC

Weekly:

unibtcweekly

Day by day:

unibtcdaily

Worth: $8.81 (36,970 satoshis)

Market Cap: $6.558bn

Ideas: If we start by UNI/USD, the pair has been in a powerful uptrend for the previous few weeks, rallying off the double backside at $3.50 right into a weekly excessive this week of ~$9.80, however now closing the week proper round reclaimed resistance at $8.80. We stay beneath trendline resistance from the all-time excessive however weekly momentum has positively shift in favour of the bulls in contrast to many initiatives, which provides me extra confidence that the underside is probably going in on this pair following the 93% drawdown from the excessive. As such, if we do mark out a prime within the coming weeks, I might be in search of a return to $4.80 to retest that degree as the next low and main help. If we begin to consolidate above there, I’m going to be including to my spot bag. Invalidation for me would then be an in depth beneath $2.90. If we take a look at the every day, we will see that value has marginally shut above the 200dM and prior help turned resistance however is beginning to flip decrease from right here,  however even every day momentum will not be exhibiting exhaustion as of but. If the broader market shits the mattress, I do suppose this energy gained’t matter all an excessive amount of and we’ll see a break again beneath help at $7.40 that units up the transfer again into $4.80.

Turning to UNI/BTC, we have now seen value shut above long-term trendline resistance and reclaim prior resistance as help at 26.3k satoshis, persevering with to rally off that degree into resistance on the 38.2% resistance at 41k satoshis. That is the place I might count on an area prime to start to kind and if now shut beneath the 34.8k degree this coming week, I feel we see a return in the direction of the help degree at 21,4k satoshis to retest that backside formation, which is the place I might wish to see additional consolidation and an accumulation vary kind. Following such a drastic drawdown, it’s unlikely that even this early energy may be sustained and we might wish to see that protracted, low volatility setting play out earlier than a brand new cycle can start.


Elrond:

EGLD/USD

Weekly:

eglusdweekly

Day by day:

egldusddaily

EGLD/BTC

Weekly:

egldbtcweekly

Day by day:

egldbtcdaily

Worth: $59.44 (0.00249 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.363bn

Ideas: Starting with EGLD/USD, we will see from the weekly that the pair has been in consolidation for 7 weeks above prior help at $50 however beneath help turned resistance at $65, having drawn down 94% from the all-time excessive, however remaining capped by trendline resistance with no actual shift in construction. This low volatility setting is promising, however anybody seeking to scale in right here ought to have a really tight invalidation at $50, as any weekly shut beneath that degree opens up a swing-low retest at $36.70, the place if that degree fails we have now the subsequent main degree at $23. Wanting on the every day, we will see that help continues to be discovered proper round that $50 degree and this vary is precisely what we wish to be seeing, however I do fear that if the broader market pukes, this vary means little or no and we’ll seemingly start one other leg decrease, so in case you are seeking to scale in, it’s sensible to both dollar-cost in very slowly over the approaching months with a a lot wider invalidation or look to chop in a short time and re-allocate in a brand new vary decrease, which is my most well-liked method for large-caps.

Turning to EGLD/BTC, we will see that regardless of the rally a couple of weeks in the past value rejected at reclaimed resistance at 0.00293 and has since been consolidating beneath resistance, however the pair is trying weak right here, which, if we flip to the every day, we will see has manifested in a every day construction break and reversion to weak spot available in the market. From right here, if the 22.6k satoshi help fails, I might count on to see one other 20-25% of draw back again into main help at 19k satoshis. Till we break cleanly above 30k satoshis, this seems extra bearish to me.


Sushiswap:

SUSHI/USD

Weekly:

sushiusdweekly

Day by day:

sushiusddaily

SUSHI/BTC

Weekly:

Day by day:

sushibtcdaily

Worth: $1.52 (6377 satoshis)

Market Cap: $192.44mn

Ideas: Taking a look at SUSHI/USD, on the weekly we will see that the pair has been consolidating round help at $1 for about 11 weeks, with resistance coming in round $1.95, and weekly construction and momentum nonetheless bearish. If we take a look at the every day for extra readability, we will see that the pair is broadly shifting how I had anticipated a couple of weeks in the past, with this $1-2 vary capping value both facet and value now consolidating. So long as we stay between these degree, we will begin to change into extra assured within the chance of a backside being in and might start to scale in with invalidation on an in depth beneath $0.89, as a transfer beneath that degree opens up an all-time low retest. If we break past $1.95, we do have prior help and the 200dMA at $2.70, so that may be the subsequent space I might count on to cap value, however construction would have shifted in favour of the bulls at that time and we might extra aggressively scale in if place measurement has not but been stuffed, relying in your method.

Turning to SUSHI/BTC, we proceed to consolidate above the all-time low and have now reclaimed help at 5920 satoshis for a few weeks however stay capped by trendline resistance and prior help at 7130 satoshis. Break above the trendline and maintain above 7130 satoshis and I feel that backside formation turns into fairly clear. Wanting on the every day, the 200dMA can also be capping value at current, so an in depth above that presents an early indication of shifting momentum. If we proceed to carry inside this vary beneath the 200dMA, I’ll certainly begin allocation in August.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be at liberty to go away any feedback or questions beneath, or e-mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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