Market Outlook #183 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog

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Market Outlook #183 (18th July 2022)

Hi there, and welcome to the 183rd instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s submit, I will likely be masking Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, Solana, Polkadot, Litecoin, Decentraland, Aave and Fantom.

As ever, when you have any requests for subsequent Monday’s Outlook, do let me know.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

Every day:

btcusddaily

Worth: $22,043

Market Cap: $421.811bn

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, we will see from the weekly that worth bounced off assist final week at $18.9k, working the prior weekly low marginally and bouncing into the weekly shut at $20,791. Since, worth has bounced exhausting this morning, at current rallying up by resistance at $21,870, while remaining under the 200wMA. While it is a good present of power and should nicely lastly convey that reduction rally in direction of untested prior assist at $25.4k, for now we’re nonetheless beneath important resistance. If we wick above the 200wMA after which break again under and shut the weekly under $21,870 as soon as once more, this is able to seem like a failed breakout and we stay range-bound, with worth more likely to return to assist at $19k. Nevertheless, if we will get a weekly shut up above $22k on good quantity, I feel we’ve got ourselves a profitable breakout of the vary and I’d be trying to play longs in direction of $25.4k as a primary goal, adopted probably by $28k if we will rise up by that former stage.

Turning to the each day, we will see that momentum is lastly choosing up as we push on by $21.9k and I’m contemplating three eventualities right here for the following couple of weeks: firstly, there’s the potential for a swing-failure of the vary highs and thus an instantaneous break again decrease and return to the mid-range round prior cycle highs, the place we might await the shut again under $21.9k and look to brief it as reclaimed resistance; secondly, we shut cleanly above $22k and we run in direction of $25.4k, rejecting and returning to the vary; or thirdly, that $25.4k stage will get reclaimed as assist and we run into prior vary assist at $28.7k to retest it as resistance, and that’s the place I’d look to open swing-shorts for the approaching months if we get it. For now, there are some promising indicators for reduction going into August.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ethusdweekly

Every day:

ethusddaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ethbtcweekly

Every day:

ethbtcdaily

Worth: $1,453 (0.0654 BTC)

Market Cap: $177.488bn

Ideas: Wanting firstly at ETH/USD, we will see from the weekly that worth is main the cost, having rallied off assist at $992 final week to interrupt above the 200wMA and shut again above resistance at $1255, closing the week up close to $1338. Since, worth has continued greater, rallying into the prior cycle highs at $1416 and now persevering with past them. If we see worth proceed to carry above $1416 early this week, I feel the following goal is on observe at $1700 – the unique breakdown stage that is still untested, which I’d anticipate to cap the rally on a primary try. Dropping into the each day, we will see that the $1255 resistance was closed firmly by final week as ETH picked up momentum and I’m now on the lookout for a each day shut above $1416 to play the vary in direction of $1700. If, nevertheless, we shut right this moment again under $1416, resistance has held and I’d be trying to purchase a dip again into $1255 to retest the breakout zone as assist, then play that again into $1416 for one more try. If we do rise up close to $1700, the plan is just to search for indicators of exhaustion and a reversion to bearish market construction after which open swing shorts.

Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that the Could lows held and worth reclaimed the vary in fashion, rallying off vary assist all the best way into the weekly shut, taking out minor assist turned resistance at 0.064 and persevering with to the mid-range at 0.068. That is the place we’ve got to concentrate, as there’s important overhead resistance while the Greenback pair is contesting its personal historic stage; if we begin to see the mid-range act as resistance as soon as once more and worth start to interrupt down on the decrease timeframes, we might even see a dip again in direction of vary assist to see if the pair can type a higher-low – as of now, weekly construction stays bearish as we strategy resistance, and weekly RSI continues to be pointing at a downtrend, so let’s not get too carried away. If worth can climb and shut again above the mid-range and paint a trendline breakout, issues look a little bit completely different and we will begin to take a look at the high quality to be retested up close to 0.082. If we drop into the each day briefly, we will see that the mid-range has confluence with the 200dMA and 360dMA, therefore important overhead resistance – that is the place I’d be trying to hedge lengthy ETH publicity versus opening publicity.


BNB:

BNB/USD

Weekly:

bnbusdweekly

Every day:

bnbusddaily

BNB/BTC

Weekly:

bnbbtcweekly

Every day:

bnbbtcdaily

Worth: $261.61 (0.01178 BTC)

Market Cap: $42.715bn

Ideas: Starting with BNB/USD, we will see from the weekly that worth has bounced off vary assist at $210, consolidated for a few weeks and now’s seeing some reduction, with worth now pushing into prior assist turned resistance round $254. There’s nothing but that factors in direction of a longer-term reversal, but when worth is ready to reclaim $254 as assist, I feel we squeeze again into that trendline that has capped worth all yr, across the prior assist turned resistance at $317. Wanting on the each day, that kind of squeeze would additionally seemingly align with a 200dMA retest as resistance, the place if we noticed momentum exhaustion and worth starting to interrupt down, we might search for shorts again in direction of $210. For the lengthy facet, a each day shut above $254 turns construction firmly bullish as each day RSI is indicating a shift in momentum, and we might look to purchase a dip again into $254 early this week to play it into $317.

Wanting now at BNB/BTC, in contrast to most BTC pairs, BNB is wanting on the verge of an all-time excessive breakout, however in sensible phrases it’s merely sitting proper up close to vary resistance on the all-time excessive of 0.0124. Once more, very like ETH/BTC, proper at historic resistance will not be the place you need to be trying to get important lengthy publicity, but when we do see a detailed above the all-time excessive, as wild as it’s to say we’re in worth discovery for the pair. If nevertheless we wick above the vary highs and shut again under them, that’s seemingly it for the BNB/BTC rally and I’d anticipate a return in direction of the mid-range the place assist has been forming round 0.0096. The resilience of BNB has been spectacular and little doubt highlights the arrogance the market has in CZ and Binance as market leaders, so if we do print a spread excessive fake-out after which breakdown and the broader market turns decrease as soon as once more, then BNB is a spot place I will likely be taking up the approaching months.


Solana:

SOL/USD

Weekly:

Every day:

solusddaily

SOL/BTC

Weekly:

solbtcweekly

Every day:

solbtcdaily

Worth: $42.22 (0.0019 BTC)

Market Cap: $14.585bn

Ideas: Wanting firstly at SOL/USD, we will see from the weekly that worth bounced above prior vary assist at $26, then consolidated round a higher-low at $35.60 and is now turning greater as soon as once more, with the following main resistance up close to that $54 to $62 vary. Nothing has modified drastically on the weekly timeframe as of but but when we have a look at the each day, we will see the construction extra clearly, with each day RSI pointing in direction of a momentum shift and worth having discovered stable assist above $31, with each day construction now turning bullish as worth breaks above trendline resistance. If we shut right this moment above $43, I feel that the squeeze will proceed into $53.60, and I’d be on the lookout for indicators of exhaustion above $54 together with a reversion to bearish construction on the each day earlier than on the lookout for shorts once more. If we have a look at the earlier consolidation, there are a lot of similarities, culminating within the pair retesting the 200dMA as resistance after which puking the complete rally again into recent lows. If we see one thing related right here going into August, we could get a retest of the prior assist at $75 earlier than worth reverses. That isn’t to say that we are going to go for recent lows from there, however I definitely see a return to vary assist round $26-30 if we’re printing a cyclical backside; if we aren’t, the following stage under can be $18.90.

Turning to SOL/BTC, worth bounced off prior resistance turned assist at 0.00111 after which rallied into assist turned resistance at 0.002, under which it’s presently consolidating. Shut again above that stage and I feel we squeeze one other 15% into 0.00235 as prior assist, which might lend itself to the Greenback pair pushing up into that resistance zone marked out. If worth is unable to get again above 0.002 right here and begins to interrupt down on the each day under assist at 0.00161, market construction is bearish as soon as once more and we are going to seemingly return to 0.00137 to retest that reclaimed assist stage, which is a pleasant space for a higher-low to type if the underside is in at 0.00111. On the each day we will additionally see that the 200dMA and 360dMA are proper round that 0.00235 stage for added confluence.


Polkadot:

DOT/USD

Weekly:

dotusdweekly

Every day:

dotusddaily

DOT/BTC

Weekly:

dotbtcweekly

Every day:

dotbtcdaily

Worth: $7.50 (33,830 satoshis)

Market Cap: $7.406bn

Ideas: Starting with DOT/USD, we will see from the weekly that worth has printed a 3 drive backside formation into that prior resistance turned assist stage at $6.90 and is now turning greater, though construction and momentum are usually not but pointing to bullishness – nonetheless, it is a good sample for some reduction, significantly within the context of wider market reduction. If we do see worth push up from right here this week, prior assist at $8.60 is a key stage because it has capped worth as resistance since June; reclaim that and weekly construction turns bullish after which we’ve got some actual confluence for sustained reduction, with key ranges above that at $10.30-$11.20, adopted by $13.10-$14.07. Wanting on the each day, we will see that there’s bullish divergence on these three drives with RSI now indicating a shift in momentum as worth is hitting trendline resistance; break above this resistance and shut above $7.60 right this moment and I feel that $8.60 retest follows swiftly. I will likely be on the lookout for longs in that state of affairs with a primary goal of $8.60, adopted by $10.30.

Turning to DOT/BTC, we will see on the weekly that worth has discovered assist round 27k satoshis, bounced greater and reclaimed prior resistance a assist round 33k satoshis and is now consolidating above it, with weekly construction nonetheless bearish under 40.5k; if that stage is reclaimed, I feel we see one other 25-30% of reduction in direction of the 52k satoshi space. Wanting on the each day, we do have some good construction right here with the low being rang at 26.9k earlier than worth rallied and turned construction bullish, with 31.7k presently appearing as a higher-low; lose that and the bullish state of affairs appears invalidated to me as we’ve got reclaimed key assist after which instantly lose it and damaged down. If we will proceed to bounce from right here we will see simply how a lot confluence there’s for resistance in that 40.5k to 44k satoshi vary, the place any indicators of exhaustion with a breakdown in worth on the decrease timeframes units up a pleasant swing brief again into assist at 27k satoshis. If that vary will get cleared, nevertheless, we’ve got clear skies into 52k satoshis, the place the 360dMA additionally sits.


Litecoin:

LTC/USD

Weekly:

ltcusdweekly

Every day:

ltcusddaily

LTC/BTC

Weekly:

ltcbtcweekly

Every day:

ltcbtcdaily

Worth: $58.56 (0.002623 BTC)

Market Cap: $4.142bn

Ideas: Wanting firstly at LTC/USD, we will see from the weekly that worth discovered assist round $41.70, then bouncing and reclaiming $51.86 and now pushing in direction of $60.34, which stays a lower-high and thus weekly construction continues to be bearish. Shut the weekly above that stage and we’ve got a higher-high after the high-low and we a minimum of have one other 15% in it from there with reclaimed resistance sitting at $69. Above that, there’s minor resistance at $85 however the subsequent main stage is after all the 200wMA and prior assist cluster round $96-100, which might be the first goal if that $69 stage doesn’t cap worth. Wanting on the each day, momentum is popping bullish however the construction is sort of unclean and I’d solely actually need to be lengthy this above $69 to be trustworthy, on the lookout for the vary play again into the 200dMA and 200wMA confluence at $96. Beneath $69, I don’t assume the chance rewards is beneficial for longs as we’ve got LTC/BTC additionally sitting proper at historic resistance.

So, turning to LTC/BTC, worth broke under historic assist at 0.003 firstly of the yr after which puked decrease into an all-time low at 0.00172 a number of weeks in the past, bouncing exhausting off that stage however discovering resistance under 0.0029, under which it’s presently consolidating. While this consolidating is promising for a breakout and reclaim of that historic stage, we’re nonetheless simply sitting under resistance and I’d not need to have important lengthy publicity right here, as this might simply wick into 0.0029 to take out the prior weekly highs, then reject and retrace again in direction of assist round 0.002 to type a higher-low. If we await a 0.003 reclaim, there’s 20% of upside into the following main stage and invalidation is evident (don’t shut again under 0.0029). So, I’m sitting on my arms with LTC at current and ready for the market to resolve which path it needs to take, and if we briefly have a look at the each day we’ve got the 200dMA presently capping worth and the 360dMA proper forward at that 0.003 stage, reinforcing my lack of want to be lengthy uncovered right here. Let’s see how the following week or two unfolds. If we break down under 0.00237 I feel there’s a excessive chance brief for one more 15% of draw back.


Decentraland:

MANA/USD

Weekly:

manausdweekly

Every day:

manausddaily

MANA/BTC

Weekly:

manabtcweekly

Every day:

manabtcdaily

Worth: $0.89 (4017 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.657bn

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MANA/USD, we will see from the weekly that worth bounced off the 200wMA round $0.60 and has since been consolidating above $0.72 in tight weekly ranges, opening up the chance of growth to both facet within the close to future. If we see worth break and shut under $0.72, it’s seemingly the growth is to comply with to the draw back and the 200wMA is getting blown out, with the following main assist down at $0.39. If, nevertheless, MANA runs with the remainder of the market and may get a weekly shut above $1.14, there’s important upside to play for longs into $1.69 as the following main stage of resistance. Nevertheless, dropping into the each day we do have lots of overhead resistance in that $1.14 to $1.25 space, with trendline resistance from the all-time excessive additionally probably capping worth once more. Momentum can be not pointing in direction of something but however continued chop. Ideally, what I’d need to see right here for the lengthy facet is one other week of chop to comply with after which worth to interrupt by trendline resistance and $1.14 and shut above them each, with longs then changing into beneficial in direction of that reclaimed resistance at $1.69.

Turning to MANA/BTC, we will see that worth has marginally turned construction bullish on the weekly, following the upper low at 2900 satoshis after which subsequently rally into prior assist turned resistance at 5070 satoshis. Now, bulls need to see one other higher-low type throughout this pull-back, with the vary between 3460 and 4010 satoshis wanting ideally suited for that formation. If we do see a better low type in that vary, I feel we break greater as soon as once more and take out resistance at 5070 satoshis, with 5830 the important thing resistance above it. What bulls don’t need to see (and what would affirm to me one other leg decrease into that 200wMA and historic resistance round 1970 satoshis) is a retracement again into 2900, erasing this whole rally off the higher-low. Dropping into the each day, we will see that the 360dMA is presently appearing as resistance, with trendline resistance and the 200dMA simply overhead at 5070, cementing how important a reclaim of that stage can be for sustained reduction for MANA.


Aave:

AAVE/USD

Weekly:

aaveusdweekly

Every day:

aaveusddaily

AAVE/BTC

Weekly:

aavebtcweekly

Every day:

aavebtcdaily

Worth: $95.92 (0.004317 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.334bn

Ideas: Wanting firstly at AAVE/USD, we will see from the weekly that worth bounced off prior all-time highs turned assist at $49 off a 93% drawdown, rallying now again in direction of the 200wMA and prior assist turned resistance at $113, which is the extent presently preserving construction bearish. If we will reclaim that stage, weekly construction begins to look bullish and the following main stage above is at $167, the place trendline resistance from the all-time excessive can also be contested and the place we might look to play that 40-50% vary lengthy after which hedge into $167 and probably reverse in direction of brief positioning if the setup presents itself up there. Solely above that trendline resistance can we begin speaking about new cycles and so forth. however I actually don’t assume we’ve got consolidated anyplace close to lengthy sufficient for that to play out; quite, if we do get a pleasant rally into $167, i believe that caps worth and we return to consolidate round $50-60 if that’s to be the long-term backside. For now although, we proceed to have weekly bearish construction under the 200wMA and there’s a risk that $113 caps worth and we simply erase the rally again in direction of $62 and proceed chop metropolis. Wanting briefly on the each day, we will additionally see that the 360dMA is simply above trendline resistance, lending confluence to that space making a possible high for this present reduction, if we’re capable of get above $113. If we wick above $113 and break again under it and each day construction turns bearish, I will likely be on the lookout for setups to brief again into $62.

Turning to AAVE/BTC, we do have bullish divergence on the three drives decrease into historic resistance turned assist at 0.00285 and the 200wMA, which is absolutely promising for bulls, and we’ve got now turned market construction bullish following final week’s shut at a better excessive, with worth now in no man’s land with the following main resistance up at 0.0055. I do anticipate we proceed to squeeze into that stage, which might align with that $113 space of the Greenback pair, and the response there will likely be important; wick above and break again under and I feel the reduction is probably going finished and we return in direction of the 200wMA to probably proceed forming a cyclical backside; or break and shut above it and we see one other 40% of upside into 0.00797. One factor to be aware of right here is that we’re additionally urgent up towards the 360dMA right here as resistance slightly below that key 0.0055 space, so I wouldn’t be speeding into longs proper now nor front-running shorts – persistence.


Fantom:

FTM/USD

Weekly:

Every day:

ftmusddaily

FTM/BTC

Weekly:

ftmbtcweekly

Every day:

ftmbtcdaily

Worth: $0.287 (1290 satoshis)

Market Cap: $729.283mn

Ideas: Starting with FTM/USD, on the weekly we will see that the pair has been consolidating proper round reclaimed assist at $0.24, inside the earlier accumulation vary, with worth presently capped by prior assist at $0.335. That is starting to seem like a pleasant backside formation for some reduction over the approaching weeks, and I’d be eager to get entangled if we will reclaim that $0.335 space, trying to then play the vary again in direction of that lower-high simply shy of $0.56. If we have a look at the each day, we will see we swept assist at $0.24 and are actually rallying off the sweep, which is what bulls need to see, however construction continues to be bearish while momentum is choosing up; shut the each day above $0.29 right this moment and I feel we’re going to see that $0.335 breakout comply with, with an excellent 50-60% of upside from there seemingly.

Turning to FTM/BTC, we’re at current contesting the trendline resistance from the all-time excessive, having discovered assist round 820 satoshis and now sitting in no man’s land under main resistance at 1600. To be trustworthy, it’s the BTC pair that makes me uneasy about getting lengthy Fantom as a result of there is no such thing as a actual construction right here to play off, and the trendline breakout is wanting much less like a breakout and extra like consolidation by it as a result of passage of time (i.e. no actual impetus). If we do begin to break greater, we’ve got important construction resistance between 1575 and 1880 satoshis, the highest finish of which I’d anticipate to cap any reduction, and so if we see that 1800 space tapped while the greenback pair comes into $0.56, any indicators of exhaustion of momentum and I’ll be trying to construct a swing-short. In the end, I nonetheless anticipate to see the BTC pair return both to assist at 890 satoshis to retest it and actually start consolidation for a cyclical backside or to interrupt by it into the main assist cluster round 500 satoshis, the place I’d be eager to purchase.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be at liberty to depart any feedback or questions under, or e-mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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